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WRONG! And, overconfidence is dangerous. Here’s why!
I was on vacation last week and talking with a CEO of company that gets over a million visitors to his company’s website every year.
His webmaster told him that the odds were “a million to one” that a particular bad thing would happen. He was totally dismissive about the need to do the extra work needed to prevent the problem because it would “never” happen to them.
The CEO pointed out that if the odds were a million to one… and they got a million visitors a year, then it would happen once per year.
The webmaster went to work to prevent the problem from happening.
When you are talking large numbers, POSSIBILITIES become PROBABILITIES given enough time.
Example – If your employee selection strategy is “hire and hope” (without proper screening) and you hire lots of people, it is a PROBABILITY, not a possibility that you will hire people you wish you hadn’t. (Think people who will: steal from you, give half effort, fake and exaggerate injuries, show up for work late (if they show up at all), drive away your best customers, drive away your best employees, etc.)